Skip to main content

How to Lie With Statistics

A broadcast email sent from Tom Coffin on August 21, 2008:

Thanks to all who attended and all who spoke at the city council meeting on Monday. The city needs to know that people are concerned and are watching. Mary Norwood did introduce her resolution to investigate my firing and the arborist division. I hope the investigation is extended to the Department of Planning where the problem originates. The council voted to give the issue to the human relations and community affairs committee, which meets on Tuesday, 8/26, I believe at 1 p.m.

The final speaker at Monday’s council meeting was Janelle Bazile, my erstwhile colleague and subordinate. She spoke about how "sad" it was that her supervisor – me --was implying that she and the other field arborists were not doing their jobs. She submitted a document to the council that I assume was meant to counter that impression. I will attach her document here:

DJ Anthony's note: Due to file format incompatibility, I am presently unable to attach the image here that Tom included in his email. However, the document simply shows that between January and July 2007, when Janell Bazile managed the region between I-75 and I-85, that she performed more site inspections than Tom Coffin did in the same region during the same months period in 2008. Sound suspicious? Tom thought so, too, and explains why:

The field arborist positions were created in 2000 with two overlapping responsibilities – to administer and to enforce the Tree Protection Ordinance. Administration is customer service driven. The field arborists respond to requests from contractors for site postings and final arborist inspections and from homeowners and tree service companies for individual tree evaluations. Enforcement – in the form of correction notices, stop work orders and citations – results in part from customer service requests for investigations, but mostly from the diligence and initiative of the individual arborist being willing to confront instances of ordinance violations found in the course of daily work.

Ms. Bazile’s chart conflates these responsibilities into a single category, “Inspections,” then proceeds to measure apples v. oranges, site visits made in 2007 by her v. those made in 2008 by me. This is a silly statistic in itself, but it is also compounded by hidden dishonesty: (1) Her numbers in 2007 include final arborist inspections, which now are the province of a single arborist, Stan Domengeaux, who does nothing but final inspections; (2) The territories covered are also different: In 2007 she covered the entire “wedge” between I-85 on the east and I-75 on the west. In 2008 my territory stopped at Northside Dr. on the west; (3) Types of inspections also changed. The economic downturn of the last half of 2007 resulted in far fewer postings for new construction. Total inspections did not drop much, however, because of a fairly dramatic increase in individual tree evaluation requests.

The key question remains the enforcement issue, which Ms. Bazile ignores. She easily could have contrasted her enforcement activities in 2007 with mine in 2008 had she chosen to do so. That would at least have been a more honest statistic and certainly more revealing.

The Department of Planning and the Bureau of Buildings continue to stonewall the issue of due process in my dismissal, refusing to give any reason whatsoever. Commissioner Cover’s cover is that my firing results from a “sensitive personnel issue.” “Sensitive” to whom, and “sensitive” why? My actions are and have been open and transparent. I have no objection to airing these “sensitive” issues in whatever forum is available.

Tom Coffin

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Appeals to the Tree Conservation Commission, 2008

Appeals to the Tree Conservation Commission, 2008 By Tom Coffin, Ph.D. Appeals to the Tree Conservation Commission are, by design, an integral part of the Tree Protection Ordinance. Like most laws, the TPO is a relatively blunt instrument. Though reasonable and effective most of the time, it does not cover all situations all the time, nor is it fair to all parties all the time. Appeals to the TCC provide an administrative means to resolve disputes. Unlike a Municipal Court hearing – also possible under the ordinance -- where decisions are usually based on the “letter of the law,” appeal hearings before the TCC often allow for some bending of the law as written to encompass a specific situation. At its best, the TCC acts as the “conscience of the community” in its decision-making. Both the commission and the appeal process have matured. After more than eight years of use and testing, both work rather admirably when allowed to do so. Under the Tree Protection Ordinance, every decision (s...

Urban Forest Fiasco

From Creative Loafing... "Tom Coffin loves trees. And when we say he loves trees, he reaaally loves trees. The unfamiliar face – who was the city's senior arborist until he was fired July 29 – is the epicenter of the latest scandal to emanate from already embattled City Hall. The city's failure to specify why Coffin was fired (or who called for it) has led many to speculate about the cause – and jump to the conclusion that developers saw him as a threat. Even the New York Times took notice – and questioned whether Atlanta's development machine had chalked a win over the environmental community." ... more

Huffington Post Comments

The Huffington Post picked up the New York Times story as soon as it was published. Here is a comment to the article from their Web site : "well it's nice to hear that at least someone was doing their job because when I drive through this city the question that repeatedly comes to my mind is: why does atlanta even have a tree ordinance? the developers here still clear-cut old large trees then replant saplings - and given the stress that these trees are under it is highly doubtful they will ever reach the size of the ones that are being cut down.I've lived here for almost 2 decades and I continue to be appalled at what the city allows developers to get away with here. we're running out of water and they still keep handing out the building permits. we're losing our oldest and largest tress to greed and the city just keeps handing out the permits. truely this city is f-ed at this point. so I guess given that developers always get their way in this place it comes as no...